Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Los Angeles 2019?
I was cleaning out my apartment yesterday and I happened across a book, "Cyberpunk: 2020." It was one of the many roleplaying game books that I bought in my youth but never got around to playing. Written in 1990, it allows us to live in the dystopian nightmare that was to come in the next 30 years.
Well, we're half way there, and I decided to see how we're doing. I flipped through the book, and had a few laughs. The book was clearly written at the beginning of the information age, and like all predictions of the future, it seems way off. 15 years down the road, and we are not much closer to cybernetic limbs or brain implants. We still aren't anywhere near flying cars. (C'mon, Detroit! Get the lead out!)
There were a couple of things that made me laugh out loud. There's a flying car built by McDonnell Douglas. Newspapers are delievered via fax to vending machines. There's still a Soviet Union. The section on cell phones was hilarious:
"The phone of the future is mobile and cordless, allowing the cyberpunk on the go to talk from his car, office, or even on the street. These 'cellular' phones operate by using a series of stationary transceivers which pick up your phone signal and relay it into the regular phone Net. Calls can be made from not only from within the city, but also long distance (with a Long Distance service of your choice) all over the world and even into orbit.
Cellular phones come in a variety of brands and styles, although most are about the size of a hand-held walkie-talkie. They operate on rechargeable batteries good for about twelve hours, recharging from a wall socket in 6 hours. Brand names include Magnavox, NEC, Okidata, GE and Radio Shack. Prices range from $400.00 for an inexpensive model, to $3,000.00 for a model with multiple lines, built in hold-buttons and memory autodial.
Like other phones, you must pay a monthly service charge. Baseline rates are $40.00 per month plus $0.20 per minute for local calls. Long distance varies- a call from Los Angeles to New York might cost $2.00 a minute during daylight business hours, $1.50 for evening hours. Cell phones also have a limit on how far they can operate outside the city limits; about 20 miles.
They managed to get one or two things right, however. They did predict high definition flat panel television. They talk about a single European currency, though they call it a "European dollar."
On the other hand, they say, "The Fax is the letter writing mode of the future. You may type your letter in using the keyboard, have it scanned from your own laser disk, or use the built-in scanner to 'read' any typed letter. The faxed copy is then transmitted by wire to the local post office in your destination area, where it is automatically typed off, inserted into an envelope, and delivered by letter carrier to the mailbox."
I suppose my point in all of this is simply this: Why do science fiction writers (and roleplaying game authors) insist on giving their fictional worlds in a specific time, one which is likely to be within their lifetime? Take Blade Runner for example. It takes place in 2019, which is only 38 years after the film was made. Yet, we have flying cars, off-world colonies, and genetically engineered robots, to say nothing of the fact that L.A. looks like Cybertron on crack. Ridley Scott will likely live to see 2019. He may be 82, but he'll probably be around. I'm betting that the future isn't anywhere near what he predicted.
I guess this all stems from the disappointment of 2001: A Space Odyssey. In the movie, you could take a Pan Am(!) flight to a space station or even the Moon. We were sending the first manned mission to Jupiter (Saturn in the book!). Now, it seems like the only thing it got right was the fact that we evolved from apes. In reality, 2001 was an awfully shitty year.
Admittedly, Stanley Kubrick sadly didn't live to see 2001, but Arthur C. Clarke did. (Boy, he must have been disappointed.)
I love the cyberpunk genre. I love the bleak, film-noir-ish future. A lot of it seems dated, however. It just seems to me that if you are going to create a fictional world set in the near future, don't put a specific date on it, especially if it's likely you may live to see that date, and look like an ass because you were way off.
That's why I always liked the Max Headroom show. It was always "20 minutes into the future," which made it seem like it wasn't quite on our plane of existence. While only 20 minutes ahead of us, we would never catch up it, and therefore in would never exist for us. It was a great idea.
I also like stories that take place off in the distant future. Take Dune, for example. The first book starts in the year 10,191. That's 8,000 years in the future. You can really go to town there because it's almost impossible to make any sort of an educated guess about the future that far ahead. 8,000 years ago, agriculture was just emerging in the Nile Valley. Just imagine what it will be like in another eight millennia.
Anyway, stop using dates in the near future, unless you like looking like a chump.
Well, we're half way there, and I decided to see how we're doing. I flipped through the book, and had a few laughs. The book was clearly written at the beginning of the information age, and like all predictions of the future, it seems way off. 15 years down the road, and we are not much closer to cybernetic limbs or brain implants. We still aren't anywhere near flying cars. (C'mon, Detroit! Get the lead out!)
There were a couple of things that made me laugh out loud. There's a flying car built by McDonnell Douglas. Newspapers are delievered via fax to vending machines. There's still a Soviet Union. The section on cell phones was hilarious:
"The phone of the future is mobile and cordless, allowing the cyberpunk on the go to talk from his car, office, or even on the street. These 'cellular' phones operate by using a series of stationary transceivers which pick up your phone signal and relay it into the regular phone Net. Calls can be made from not only from within the city, but also long distance (with a Long Distance service of your choice) all over the world and even into orbit.
Cellular phones come in a variety of brands and styles, although most are about the size of a hand-held walkie-talkie. They operate on rechargeable batteries good for about twelve hours, recharging from a wall socket in 6 hours. Brand names include Magnavox, NEC, Okidata, GE and Radio Shack. Prices range from $400.00 for an inexpensive model, to $3,000.00 for a model with multiple lines, built in hold-buttons and memory autodial.
Like other phones, you must pay a monthly service charge. Baseline rates are $40.00 per month plus $0.20 per minute for local calls. Long distance varies- a call from Los Angeles to New York might cost $2.00 a minute during daylight business hours, $1.50 for evening hours. Cell phones also have a limit on how far they can operate outside the city limits; about 20 miles.
They managed to get one or two things right, however. They did predict high definition flat panel television. They talk about a single European currency, though they call it a "European dollar."
On the other hand, they say, "The Fax is the letter writing mode of the future. You may type your letter in using the keyboard, have it scanned from your own laser disk, or use the built-in scanner to 'read' any typed letter. The faxed copy is then transmitted by wire to the local post office in your destination area, where it is automatically typed off, inserted into an envelope, and delivered by letter carrier to the mailbox."
I suppose my point in all of this is simply this: Why do science fiction writers (and roleplaying game authors) insist on giving their fictional worlds in a specific time, one which is likely to be within their lifetime? Take Blade Runner for example. It takes place in 2019, which is only 38 years after the film was made. Yet, we have flying cars, off-world colonies, and genetically engineered robots, to say nothing of the fact that L.A. looks like Cybertron on crack. Ridley Scott will likely live to see 2019. He may be 82, but he'll probably be around. I'm betting that the future isn't anywhere near what he predicted.
I guess this all stems from the disappointment of 2001: A Space Odyssey. In the movie, you could take a Pan Am(!) flight to a space station or even the Moon. We were sending the first manned mission to Jupiter (Saturn in the book!). Now, it seems like the only thing it got right was the fact that we evolved from apes. In reality, 2001 was an awfully shitty year.
Admittedly, Stanley Kubrick sadly didn't live to see 2001, but Arthur C. Clarke did. (Boy, he must have been disappointed.)
I love the cyberpunk genre. I love the bleak, film-noir-ish future. A lot of it seems dated, however. It just seems to me that if you are going to create a fictional world set in the near future, don't put a specific date on it, especially if it's likely you may live to see that date, and look like an ass because you were way off.
That's why I always liked the Max Headroom show. It was always "20 minutes into the future," which made it seem like it wasn't quite on our plane of existence. While only 20 minutes ahead of us, we would never catch up it, and therefore in would never exist for us. It was a great idea.
I also like stories that take place off in the distant future. Take Dune, for example. The first book starts in the year 10,191. That's 8,000 years in the future. You can really go to town there because it's almost impossible to make any sort of an educated guess about the future that far ahead. 8,000 years ago, agriculture was just emerging in the Nile Valley. Just imagine what it will be like in another eight millennia.
Anyway, stop using dates in the near future, unless you like looking like a chump.
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Here! Here!
I used to play Shadow Run; by this point in time the bombs have dropped, corporations have replaced governments and we all have cybernetic implants.
The Sound of Thunder (opening this October) takes place in 2050. The movie centers around tourists taking time travel safaris. Do we honestly think we'll be travelling in time by 2050? Neil Armstrong just gave an interview and said we are still twenty years away from going to Mars.
We must keep dreaming. I believe in the human spirit and that if we can dream it, we can make it a reality.
But for God's sake, pick some realistic time frames.
I used to play Shadow Run; by this point in time the bombs have dropped, corporations have replaced governments and we all have cybernetic implants.
The Sound of Thunder (opening this October) takes place in 2050. The movie centers around tourists taking time travel safaris. Do we honestly think we'll be travelling in time by 2050? Neil Armstrong just gave an interview and said we are still twenty years away from going to Mars.
We must keep dreaming. I believe in the human spirit and that if we can dream it, we can make it a reality.
But for God's sake, pick some realistic time frames.
I understand why in 2001: A Space Odyssey looked feasible in 1968. If NASA was allowed to continue at the same pace with a comparable budget from the Apollo program to the present, then we might very well be at Jupiter by now.
Unfortunately, they have to answer to Congress, and that's always a mistake. Asking Congress to make decisions on science funding is like asking Bill Frist to make a competent medical diagnosis.
Unfortunately, they have to answer to Congress, and that's always a mistake. Asking Congress to make decisions on science funding is like asking Bill Frist to make a competent medical diagnosis.
Well, to be fair, George Orwell and Phillip K. Dick didn't live long enough to see if their visions would come true.
Perhaps the masters of Sci Fi were the wrong ones to point out. It’s more about the mediocre ones, and that’s why I chose to write about the RPG book. Of course none of the details Orwell wrote about in 1984 are true, but many of the themes have come to pass. That's (one of the reasons) why it's a masterpiece. Arthur C. Clarke predicted communication satellites like a decade before Sputnik, and they way he and Kubrick depicted the Moon and lunar exploration was right on the money.
It just annoys me when they make a major point about when these great events are supposed to take place. I was pissed off in 2001 at the state of space exploration. The real 2001 was more like 2001: a Space Mediocrity.
There's plenty of Sci Fi out there that takes place in the near future that uses a specific date, but it's just a minor detail. When you make the date prominent, like you are declaring "This will be the world of the future," chances are you'll look like a tool.
Sure, the masters will get it right, at least in spirit. And a lot of the cool future stuff we used to read about as kids is actually true. There are already people with cybernetic parts. I’m not just talking about artificial hearts or hips. They just developed a kind of cybernetic eye for the blind. It involves having to walk around with a camcorder strapped to your head and the resolution sucks, but they hook it up to your brain and it works.
At the risk of sounding cheesy, the future is here. I have a phone that I can carry with me anywhere. I have a portable computer the size of a cigarette case. Many, if not most houses in this country have computers, which are hooked into a global computer network. Everything is digital. I carry my entire music collection on my belt. All of these things are very cool, and I love the digital age, but they aren’t the things I used to dream about.
The things we used to dream about as kids haven’t happened (yet). Take space travel. I can’t go into space. There is no commercial space travel, unless you have an extra $100 million and bribe the Russians into taking you into orbit. Even then, the furthest you can go is to the International Space Station. It isn’t even done, nor is it remotely suited for the recreational space traveler.
The Space Program has stagnated. We should have moved on from the shuttle a decade ago. Now they’re thinking they’ll scrap the shuttle, only to move backward to Gemini-like capsules. I want a fucking aerospace plane!
The biggest success NASA’s had in recent years has been the Hubble, which they almost scrapped. Its fate is still uncertain since they’ve grounded the shuttle again.
Bush proposed a manned mission to Mars and a return to the Moon. This was a surprise to me, until I remembered that the bulk of the aerospace industry, not to mention NASA, is in Texas. Still, the return to the Moon isn’t scheduled to happen until 2020. The first time around, they did it in eight years. Now, it’s going to take twice as long, which really puzzles me since we already know how to do it. To add insult to injury, Congress only appropriated about $44 million a year for that effort. You can’t even make a movie about going to Mars for $44 million!
Spaceship One is the only thing that gave me hope. A private citizen built his own spaceship and launched the fucker. God bless that rich, wacky bastard. People, like that wackjob who owns Virgin Airlines, are talking about creating a commercial space industry. The problem is, in a world where they can’t even make an airline profitable, how the hell is a spaceplane going to make money? How are they going turn a profit going to a place that has literally nothing, when they can’t even make a buck on the redeye to Vegas?
There are no ray guns, no rocket packs, no flying cars or floating cities. We haven’t made alien contact, the space program is going backwards, and I can’t hook my brain into the net. Our robots can barely balance themselves on two legs, and A.I. is limited to the reaction of various elements in a video game. News flash people! It isn’t A.I., it’s just they crammed a shitload more algorithms into the game to make it seem like the bad guys can think.
Flying cars. That’s all I want.
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Perhaps the masters of Sci Fi were the wrong ones to point out. It’s more about the mediocre ones, and that’s why I chose to write about the RPG book. Of course none of the details Orwell wrote about in 1984 are true, but many of the themes have come to pass. That's (one of the reasons) why it's a masterpiece. Arthur C. Clarke predicted communication satellites like a decade before Sputnik, and they way he and Kubrick depicted the Moon and lunar exploration was right on the money.
It just annoys me when they make a major point about when these great events are supposed to take place. I was pissed off in 2001 at the state of space exploration. The real 2001 was more like 2001: a Space Mediocrity.
There's plenty of Sci Fi out there that takes place in the near future that uses a specific date, but it's just a minor detail. When you make the date prominent, like you are declaring "This will be the world of the future," chances are you'll look like a tool.
Sure, the masters will get it right, at least in spirit. And a lot of the cool future stuff we used to read about as kids is actually true. There are already people with cybernetic parts. I’m not just talking about artificial hearts or hips. They just developed a kind of cybernetic eye for the blind. It involves having to walk around with a camcorder strapped to your head and the resolution sucks, but they hook it up to your brain and it works.
At the risk of sounding cheesy, the future is here. I have a phone that I can carry with me anywhere. I have a portable computer the size of a cigarette case. Many, if not most houses in this country have computers, which are hooked into a global computer network. Everything is digital. I carry my entire music collection on my belt. All of these things are very cool, and I love the digital age, but they aren’t the things I used to dream about.
The things we used to dream about as kids haven’t happened (yet). Take space travel. I can’t go into space. There is no commercial space travel, unless you have an extra $100 million and bribe the Russians into taking you into orbit. Even then, the furthest you can go is to the International Space Station. It isn’t even done, nor is it remotely suited for the recreational space traveler.
The Space Program has stagnated. We should have moved on from the shuttle a decade ago. Now they’re thinking they’ll scrap the shuttle, only to move backward to Gemini-like capsules. I want a fucking aerospace plane!
The biggest success NASA’s had in recent years has been the Hubble, which they almost scrapped. Its fate is still uncertain since they’ve grounded the shuttle again.
Bush proposed a manned mission to Mars and a return to the Moon. This was a surprise to me, until I remembered that the bulk of the aerospace industry, not to mention NASA, is in Texas. Still, the return to the Moon isn’t scheduled to happen until 2020. The first time around, they did it in eight years. Now, it’s going to take twice as long, which really puzzles me since we already know how to do it. To add insult to injury, Congress only appropriated about $44 million a year for that effort. You can’t even make a movie about going to Mars for $44 million!
Spaceship One is the only thing that gave me hope. A private citizen built his own spaceship and launched the fucker. God bless that rich, wacky bastard. People, like that wackjob who owns Virgin Airlines, are talking about creating a commercial space industry. The problem is, in a world where they can’t even make an airline profitable, how the hell is a spaceplane going to make money? How are they going turn a profit going to a place that has literally nothing, when they can’t even make a buck on the redeye to Vegas?
There are no ray guns, no rocket packs, no flying cars or floating cities. We haven’t made alien contact, the space program is going backwards, and I can’t hook my brain into the net. Our robots can barely balance themselves on two legs, and A.I. is limited to the reaction of various elements in a video game. News flash people! It isn’t A.I., it’s just they crammed a shitload more algorithms into the game to make it seem like the bad guys can think.
Flying cars. That’s all I want.
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